Daily

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Important dates:

  • (purple dashed lines) August 31, Sept 14, Sept 28: Return to campus/school, +2 weeks, +4 weeks

Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

Active

Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

Column

Estimated Active, split by Age group:

  • First plot is conservative (10-day total) estimate
  • Second plot is 14-day total used in MN Safe-Learning plan

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

By the Numbers

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Definitions

Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table

Eau Claire

Eau Claire cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
October 22 2020 2850 28259 103 12 450 586
October 23 2020 2941 28410 104 12 487 633
October 24 2020 3057 28646 109 12 586 716
October 25 2020 3142 28788 110 12 634 749
October 26 2020 3320 29025 115 12 762 920
October 27 2020 3442 29473 121 12 884 988
October 28 2020 3531 29610 123 12 896 1060
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 6 5.0 5% 45 0.39% 50 0.43%
10-19 15 17.3 14.8% 133 0.98% 163 1.2%
20-29 15 21.3 21.3% 191 0.91% 235 1.12%
30-39 18 15.9 15.3% 137 1.01% 148 1.09%
40-49 10 12.6 11.3% 101 0.97% 118 1.13%
50-59 12 14.6 12.9% 116 0.92% 136 1.08%
60-69 4 10.9 10.9% 98 0.85% 118 1.03%
70+ 9 9.4 8.4% 75 0.72% 92 0.88%
All ages 89 106.9 100% 896 0.86% 1060 1.01%

Chippewa

Chippewa cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
October 22 2020 1279 17885 48 7 446 549
October 23 2020 1318 18021 51 10 459 555
October 24 2020 1397 18158 55 11 510 610
October 25 2020 1397 18256 55 11 438 585
October 26 2020 1533 18387 56 11 516 700
October 27 2020 1581 18568 57 11 564 722
October 28 2020 1685 18660 59 13 653 798
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 4 2.1 3.4% 22 0.28% 25 0.32%
10-19 7 4.4 7.4% 48 0.57% 60 0.71%
20-29 12 6.4 10.7% 70 0.98% 99 1.39%
30-39 18 13.3 18.5% 121 1.44% 144 1.71%
40-49 16 12.4 16.7% 109 1.4% 133 1.71%
50-59 20 12.6 18.5% 121 1.25% 142 1.46%
60-69 16 10.4 15% 98 1.17% 116 1.38%
70+ 11 5.4 10.4% 68 0.96% 83 1.17%
All ages 104 67.1 100% 653 1.01% 798 1.23%

Barron

Barron cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
October 22 2020 895 11599 38 6 264 342
October 23 2020 931 11712 39 6 286 356
October 24 2020 970 11813 39 6 292 372
October 25 2020 1016 11896 39 6 315 398
October 26 2020 1062 11955 41 6 332 431
October 27 2020 1093 12014 45 6 363 448
October 28 2020 1132 12115 48 7 351 454
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 1 0.7 2% 7 0.13% 9 0.17%
10-19 7 5.1 12.8% 45 0.83% 57 1.05%
20-29 6 6.0 15.4% 54 1.19% 69 1.53%
30-39 4 4.6 14% 49 0.9% 62 1.14%
40-49 4 5.9 14.8% 52 1.04% 75 1.51%
50-59 6 6.4 14.5% 51 0.75% 67 0.99%
60-69 5 5.1 14% 49 0.77% 60 0.95%
70+ 6 5.7 13.4% 47 0.74% 56 0.88%
All ages 39 39.1 100% 351 0.78% 454 1%

La Crosse

La Crosse cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
October 22 2020 3961 31309 79 17 395 520
October 23 2020 3984 31496 80 17 397 498
October 24 2020 4025 31665 83 20 420 509
October 25 2020 4083 31786 86 20 426 548
October 26 2020 4103 31881 86 20 385 537
October 27 2020 4187 32175 87 20 469 600
October 28 2020 4256 32309 89 21 498 651
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 -1 1.9 3% 15 0.13% 21 0.18%
10-19 8 5.6 10.8% 54 0.33% 69 0.42%
20-29 17 13.0 27.3% 136 0.64% 178 0.84%
30-39 5 6.4 12.2% 61 0.45% 83 0.61%
40-49 15 7.1 14.1% 70 0.51% 90 0.66%
50-59 14 8.3 15.9% 79 0.56% 99 0.7%
60-69 7 4.0 9% 45 0.32% 67 0.47%
70+ 4 3.6 7.6% 38 0.29% 44 0.34%
All ages 69 49.9 100% 498 0.42% 651 0.55%

Dane

Dane cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
October 22 2020 13315 230959 489 47 1730 2474
October 23 2020 13555 232185 489 47 1862 2520
October 24 2020 13831 233596 495 48 1976 2591
October 25 2020 14126 234714 505 48 2054 2705
October 26 2020 14305 235938 506 48 2009 2720
October 27 2020 14560 237168 511 48 2264 2867
October 28 2020 14929 237721 517 49 2420 3074
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 20 11.6 4.7% 114 0.19% 147 0.24%
10-19 53 33.0 12.1% 292 0.41% 385 0.54%
20-29 91 60.3 24% 582 0.56% 717 0.69%
30-39 58 44.4 16.8% 406 0.53% 521 0.68%
40-49 44 36.1 14.3% 346 0.53% 442 0.67%
50-59 47 34.1 13.6% 330 0.5% 415 0.63%
60-69 24 19.4 7.8% 188 0.34% 253 0.46%
70+ 32 19.3 6.7% 162 0.33% 194 0.39%
All ages 369 258.3 100% 2420 0.44% 3074 0.56%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
October 22 2020 186100 1730646 9855 1703 33908 44270
October 23 2020 190478 1744072 10038 1745 35007 45660
October 24 2020 194540 1757630 10237 1770 35962 46980
October 25 2020 198166 1768026 10332 1778 35841 47930
October 26 2020 201049 1777892 10416 1788 34863 48857
October 27 2020 206311 1789158 10636 1852 40125 50840
October 28 2020 210126 1795161 10810 1897 40012 51548
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 136 146.3 3.7% 1484 0.23% 1927 0.3%
10-19 384 387.7 9.6% 3849 0.51% 4996 0.66%
20-29 632 656.0 16.9% 6775 0.9% 8727 1.15%
30-39 598 622.3 15.9% 6381 0.84% 8235 1.09%
40-49 574 588.6 14.9% 5960 0.85% 7653 1.1%
50-59 624 654.4 16.7% 6669 0.82% 8631 1.06%
60-69 456 467.0 11.9% 4769 0.63% 6141 0.81%
70+ 410 397.4 10.3% 4124 0.64% 5237 0.82%
All ages 3815 3919.9 100% 40012 0.69% 51548 0.89%

Column

Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.

Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):

  • 2wk: Two-week case total (most recent 14 days), rate per 10K of county population
  • 2wk10s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 10-19 population
  • 2wk20s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 20-29 population; since over 50% of students on campus are in early 20s
  • daily7: Daily new-case running average (average over 7 days)
  • posratedaily7 (as a percent): Daily positive-test rate, running average (average over 7 days)

and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:

Criteria 2wk Criteria 2wk20s Criteria daily7 Suggestion
> 25 > 30 urge extra caution
> 28 > 45* decreasing consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH
> 28 > 45* steady to increasing strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH.
> 30 > 50 decreasing ’’ ’’ ’’
> 30 > 50 steady to increasing based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable

*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.

Eau Claire

Eau Claire 2wk Eau Claire 2wk10s Eau Claire 2wk20s Eau Claire current daily7 Eau Claire past daily7 Eau Claire posratedaily7
101.3 119.8 112.3 106.9 31 31.6%

Important Resources:

Chippewa

Chippewa 2wk Chippewa current daily7 Chippewa past daily7 Chippewa posratedaily7
123.4 67.1 32.9 32.7%

Barron

Barron 2wk Barron current daily7 Barron past daily7 Barron posratedaily7
100.3 39.1 18.9 29.2%

La Crosse

La Crosse 2wk La Crosse 2wk10s La Crosse 2wk20s La Crosse current daily7 La Crosse past daily7 La Crosse posratedaily7
55.1 41.7 83.6 49.9 28.9 21.2%

Dane

Dane 2wk Dane 2wk10s Dane 2wk20s Dane current daily7 Dane past daily7 Dane posratedaily7
56.2 54.2 69 258.3 150.9 18.2%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin 2wk Wisconsin 2wk10s Wisconsin 2wk20s Wisconsin current daily7 Wisconsin past daily7 Wisconsin posratedaily7
88.5 66 115.3 3919.9 2660.9 26.4%

Important Resources:

Cumulative

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Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

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Eau Claire

Chippewa

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Wisconsin

References

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Reliable Updated Visuals

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Modeling

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Predicting cumulative deaths in state

  • WI correpondence between Cumulative cases and deaths (at time lag)
    • Starting with late May, after daily tests regularly above 6000
[1] "The number of  cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 14.2 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.4 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-11-18 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 1934"

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Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges

  • Portage county (Stevens Point): gray
  • Eau Claire county (Eau Claire): blue
  • Dane county (Madison): green
  • La Crosse county (La Crosse): red