Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 22 2020 | 2850 | 28259 | 103 | 12 | 450 | 586 |
| October 23 2020 | 2941 | 28410 | 104 | 12 | 487 | 633 |
| October 24 2020 | 3057 | 28646 | 109 | 12 | 586 | 716 |
| October 25 2020 | 3142 | 28788 | 110 | 12 | 634 | 749 |
| October 26 2020 | 3320 | 29025 | 115 | 12 | 762 | 920 |
| October 27 2020 | 3442 | 29473 | 121 | 12 | 884 | 988 |
| October 28 2020 | 3531 | 29610 | 123 | 12 | 896 | 1060 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 6 | 5.0 | 5% | 45 | 0.39% | 50 | 0.43% |
| 10-19 | 15 | 17.3 | 14.8% | 133 | 0.98% | 163 | 1.2% |
| 20-29 | 15 | 21.3 | 21.3% | 191 | 0.91% | 235 | 1.12% |
| 30-39 | 18 | 15.9 | 15.3% | 137 | 1.01% | 148 | 1.09% |
| 40-49 | 10 | 12.6 | 11.3% | 101 | 0.97% | 118 | 1.13% |
| 50-59 | 12 | 14.6 | 12.9% | 116 | 0.92% | 136 | 1.08% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 10.9 | 10.9% | 98 | 0.85% | 118 | 1.03% |
| 70+ | 9 | 9.4 | 8.4% | 75 | 0.72% | 92 | 0.88% |
| All ages | 89 | 106.9 | 100% | 896 | 0.86% | 1060 | 1.01% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 22 2020 | 1279 | 17885 | 48 | 7 | 446 | 549 |
| October 23 2020 | 1318 | 18021 | 51 | 10 | 459 | 555 |
| October 24 2020 | 1397 | 18158 | 55 | 11 | 510 | 610 |
| October 25 2020 | 1397 | 18256 | 55 | 11 | 438 | 585 |
| October 26 2020 | 1533 | 18387 | 56 | 11 | 516 | 700 |
| October 27 2020 | 1581 | 18568 | 57 | 11 | 564 | 722 |
| October 28 2020 | 1685 | 18660 | 59 | 13 | 653 | 798 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 2.1 | 3.4% | 22 | 0.28% | 25 | 0.32% |
| 10-19 | 7 | 4.4 | 7.4% | 48 | 0.57% | 60 | 0.71% |
| 20-29 | 12 | 6.4 | 10.7% | 70 | 0.98% | 99 | 1.39% |
| 30-39 | 18 | 13.3 | 18.5% | 121 | 1.44% | 144 | 1.71% |
| 40-49 | 16 | 12.4 | 16.7% | 109 | 1.4% | 133 | 1.71% |
| 50-59 | 20 | 12.6 | 18.5% | 121 | 1.25% | 142 | 1.46% |
| 60-69 | 16 | 10.4 | 15% | 98 | 1.17% | 116 | 1.38% |
| 70+ | 11 | 5.4 | 10.4% | 68 | 0.96% | 83 | 1.17% |
| All ages | 104 | 67.1 | 100% | 653 | 1.01% | 798 | 1.23% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 22 2020 | 895 | 11599 | 38 | 6 | 264 | 342 |
| October 23 2020 | 931 | 11712 | 39 | 6 | 286 | 356 |
| October 24 2020 | 970 | 11813 | 39 | 6 | 292 | 372 |
| October 25 2020 | 1016 | 11896 | 39 | 6 | 315 | 398 |
| October 26 2020 | 1062 | 11955 | 41 | 6 | 332 | 431 |
| October 27 2020 | 1093 | 12014 | 45 | 6 | 363 | 448 |
| October 28 2020 | 1132 | 12115 | 48 | 7 | 351 | 454 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 0.7 | 2% | 7 | 0.13% | 9 | 0.17% |
| 10-19 | 7 | 5.1 | 12.8% | 45 | 0.83% | 57 | 1.05% |
| 20-29 | 6 | 6.0 | 15.4% | 54 | 1.19% | 69 | 1.53% |
| 30-39 | 4 | 4.6 | 14% | 49 | 0.9% | 62 | 1.14% |
| 40-49 | 4 | 5.9 | 14.8% | 52 | 1.04% | 75 | 1.51% |
| 50-59 | 6 | 6.4 | 14.5% | 51 | 0.75% | 67 | 0.99% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 5.1 | 14% | 49 | 0.77% | 60 | 0.95% |
| 70+ | 6 | 5.7 | 13.4% | 47 | 0.74% | 56 | 0.88% |
| All ages | 39 | 39.1 | 100% | 351 | 0.78% | 454 | 1% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 22 2020 | 3961 | 31309 | 79 | 17 | 395 | 520 |
| October 23 2020 | 3984 | 31496 | 80 | 17 | 397 | 498 |
| October 24 2020 | 4025 | 31665 | 83 | 20 | 420 | 509 |
| October 25 2020 | 4083 | 31786 | 86 | 20 | 426 | 548 |
| October 26 2020 | 4103 | 31881 | 86 | 20 | 385 | 537 |
| October 27 2020 | 4187 | 32175 | 87 | 20 | 469 | 600 |
| October 28 2020 | 4256 | 32309 | 89 | 21 | 498 | 651 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | -1 | 1.9 | 3% | 15 | 0.13% | 21 | 0.18% |
| 10-19 | 8 | 5.6 | 10.8% | 54 | 0.33% | 69 | 0.42% |
| 20-29 | 17 | 13.0 | 27.3% | 136 | 0.64% | 178 | 0.84% |
| 30-39 | 5 | 6.4 | 12.2% | 61 | 0.45% | 83 | 0.61% |
| 40-49 | 15 | 7.1 | 14.1% | 70 | 0.51% | 90 | 0.66% |
| 50-59 | 14 | 8.3 | 15.9% | 79 | 0.56% | 99 | 0.7% |
| 60-69 | 7 | 4.0 | 9% | 45 | 0.32% | 67 | 0.47% |
| 70+ | 4 | 3.6 | 7.6% | 38 | 0.29% | 44 | 0.34% |
| All ages | 69 | 49.9 | 100% | 498 | 0.42% | 651 | 0.55% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 22 2020 | 13315 | 230959 | 489 | 47 | 1730 | 2474 |
| October 23 2020 | 13555 | 232185 | 489 | 47 | 1862 | 2520 |
| October 24 2020 | 13831 | 233596 | 495 | 48 | 1976 | 2591 |
| October 25 2020 | 14126 | 234714 | 505 | 48 | 2054 | 2705 |
| October 26 2020 | 14305 | 235938 | 506 | 48 | 2009 | 2720 |
| October 27 2020 | 14560 | 237168 | 511 | 48 | 2264 | 2867 |
| October 28 2020 | 14929 | 237721 | 517 | 49 | 2420 | 3074 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 20 | 11.6 | 4.7% | 114 | 0.19% | 147 | 0.24% |
| 10-19 | 53 | 33.0 | 12.1% | 292 | 0.41% | 385 | 0.54% |
| 20-29 | 91 | 60.3 | 24% | 582 | 0.56% | 717 | 0.69% |
| 30-39 | 58 | 44.4 | 16.8% | 406 | 0.53% | 521 | 0.68% |
| 40-49 | 44 | 36.1 | 14.3% | 346 | 0.53% | 442 | 0.67% |
| 50-59 | 47 | 34.1 | 13.6% | 330 | 0.5% | 415 | 0.63% |
| 60-69 | 24 | 19.4 | 7.8% | 188 | 0.34% | 253 | 0.46% |
| 70+ | 32 | 19.3 | 6.7% | 162 | 0.33% | 194 | 0.39% |
| All ages | 369 | 258.3 | 100% | 2420 | 0.44% | 3074 | 0.56% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 22 2020 | 186100 | 1730646 | 9855 | 1703 | 33908 | 44270 |
| October 23 2020 | 190478 | 1744072 | 10038 | 1745 | 35007 | 45660 |
| October 24 2020 | 194540 | 1757630 | 10237 | 1770 | 35962 | 46980 |
| October 25 2020 | 198166 | 1768026 | 10332 | 1778 | 35841 | 47930 |
| October 26 2020 | 201049 | 1777892 | 10416 | 1788 | 34863 | 48857 |
| October 27 2020 | 206311 | 1789158 | 10636 | 1852 | 40125 | 50840 |
| October 28 2020 | 210126 | 1795161 | 10810 | 1897 | 40012 | 51548 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 136 | 146.3 | 3.7% | 1484 | 0.23% | 1927 | 0.3% |
| 10-19 | 384 | 387.7 | 9.6% | 3849 | 0.51% | 4996 | 0.66% |
| 20-29 | 632 | 656.0 | 16.9% | 6775 | 0.9% | 8727 | 1.15% |
| 30-39 | 598 | 622.3 | 15.9% | 6381 | 0.84% | 8235 | 1.09% |
| 40-49 | 574 | 588.6 | 14.9% | 5960 | 0.85% | 7653 | 1.1% |
| 50-59 | 624 | 654.4 | 16.7% | 6669 | 0.82% | 8631 | 1.06% |
| 60-69 | 456 | 467.0 | 11.9% | 4769 | 0.63% | 6141 | 0.81% |
| 70+ | 410 | 397.4 | 10.3% | 4124 | 0.64% | 5237 | 0.82% |
| All ages | 3815 | 3919.9 | 100% | 40012 | 0.69% | 51548 | 0.89% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 101.3 | 119.8 | 112.3 | 106.9 | 31 | 31.6% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 123.4 | 67.1 | 32.9 | 32.7% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100.3 | 39.1 | 18.9 | 29.2% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55.1 | 41.7 | 83.6 | 49.9 | 28.9 | 21.2% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56.2 | 54.2 | 69 | 258.3 | 150.9 | 18.2% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88.5 | 66 | 115.3 | 3919.9 | 2660.9 | 26.4% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 14.2 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.4 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-11-18 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 1934"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges